LRCX Lam Research Corporation
Technology · doubler · HIGH confidence
57.5
Alpha Score
Price
$267.78
Win Prob
75%
Half-Kelly
15.0%
Shares
56
📊 Scoring Waterfall
Each factor's weighted contribution to the total alpha score. Formula: contribution = (raw / max) × weight × 100
Fundamentals
10 / 20
· weight 15%
· 7.50 pts
Momentum
1.0 / 1.0
· weight 15%
· 15.00 pts
Options
5 / 20
· weight 15%
· 3.75 pts
Implied
0.75 / 1.0
· weight 10%
· 7.50 pts
Volume
0 / 2
· weight 10%
· 10.00 pts
Relative Strength
0 / 3
· weight 10%
· 2.50 pts
Technical
12 / 15
· weight 10%
· 8.00 pts
Pattern
20.0 / 20
· weight 5%
· 5.00 pts
Mean Reversion
0 / 2
· weight 5%
· 2.50 pts
Quality
3 / 5
· weight 5%
· 3.00 pts
🚀 Doubler Bonus: +20.0 pts
Stocks that have doubled in price get a 20-point bonus in the doubler-first strategy
Total Alpha Score
84.8
🎯 Factor Radar
📉 Entry Signal
Signal Type
PULLBACK
Entry Zone
$246.31 – $267.78
Signal Strength
4/5
ATR (14)
$11.83
🛡️ Trailing Stops
Initial Stop
$241.00
-10.0%
Trail at +50%
$301.25
Trail at +100%
$455.23
Stop Type
atr (13.3%)
📐 Kelly Criterion
Win Probability (p)
0.75
Avg Win (b)
0.70
Avg Loss
0.10
Win/Loss Ratio
7.000
Formula
f* = (p×b - q) / b
= f* = (0.75 × 7.00 - 0.25) / 7.00 = 71.4%
Full Kelly
71.4%
Half-Kelly ✅
35.7%
📝 ok
Suggested Shares
56
Position Size
15.0%
📊 Options Flow
IV Rank
36.6
IV Current
0.74
P/C OI Ratio
0.67
P/C Vol Ratio
2.92
IV Regime
normal
Squeeze
No
Analyst Target
$305.97
Analyst Upside
+14.3%
Rating
Buy
Unusual Activity
CALL $302.5
Vol: 397 / OI: 28
14.2x
PUT $125.0
Vol: 500 / OI: 10
50.0x
PUT $130.0
Vol: 2531 / OI: 3
843.7x
PUT $135.0
Vol: 2250 / OI: 5
450.0x
PUT $140.0
Vol: 111 / OI: 3
37.0x
PUT $245.0
Vol: 1512 / OI: 245
6.2x
📅 Earnings Risk
Earnings Date
None
Days Away
N/A
Risk Flag
✅ Low
🎯 Confidence Factors
●
outperforming sector
●
oversold bounce setup