LRCX Lam Research Corporation

Technology · doubler · HIGH confidence
57.5
Alpha Score
Price
$267.78
Win Prob
75%
Half-Kelly
15.0%
Shares
56

📊 Scoring Waterfall

Each factor's weighted contribution to the total alpha score. Formula: contribution = (raw / max) × weight × 100

Fundamentals
10 / 20 · weight 15% · 7.50 pts
Momentum
1.0 / 1.0 · weight 15% · 15.00 pts
Options
5 / 20 · weight 15% · 3.75 pts
Implied
0.75 / 1.0 · weight 10% · 7.50 pts
Volume
0 / 2 · weight 10% · 10.00 pts
Relative Strength
0 / 3 · weight 10% · 2.50 pts
Technical
12 / 15 · weight 10% · 8.00 pts
Pattern
20.0 / 20 · weight 5% · 5.00 pts
Mean Reversion
0 / 2 · weight 5% · 2.50 pts
Quality
3 / 5 · weight 5% · 3.00 pts
🚀 Doubler Bonus: +20.0 pts Stocks that have doubled in price get a 20-point bonus in the doubler-first strategy
Total Alpha Score 84.8

🎯 Factor Radar

📉 Entry Signal

Signal Type
PULLBACK
Entry Zone
$246.31 – $267.78
Signal Strength
4/5
ATR (14)
$11.83

🛡️ Trailing Stops

Initial Stop
$241.00
-10.0%
Trail at +50%
$301.25
Trail at +100%
$455.23
Stop Type
atr (13.3%)

📐 Kelly Criterion

Win Probability (p) 0.75
Avg Win (b) 0.70
Avg Loss 0.10
Win/Loss Ratio 7.000

Formula
f* = (p×b - q) / b
= f* = (0.75 × 7.00 - 0.25) / 7.00 = 71.4%

Full Kelly 71.4%
Half-Kelly ✅ 35.7%
📝 ok

Suggested Shares 56
Position Size 15.0%

📊 Options Flow

IV Rank 36.6
IV Current 0.74
P/C OI Ratio 0.67
P/C Vol Ratio 2.92
IV Regime normal
Squeeze No
Analyst Target $305.97
Analyst Upside +14.3%
Rating Buy
Unusual Activity
CALL $302.5 Vol: 397 / OI: 28 14.2x
PUT $125.0 Vol: 500 / OI: 10 50.0x
PUT $130.0 Vol: 2531 / OI: 3 843.7x
PUT $135.0 Vol: 2250 / OI: 5 450.0x
PUT $140.0 Vol: 111 / OI: 3 37.0x
PUT $245.0 Vol: 1512 / OI: 245 6.2x

📅 Earnings Risk

Earnings Date None
Days Away N/A
Risk Flag ✅ Low

🎯 Confidence Factors

outperforming sector
oversold bounce setup