FTI TechnipFMC plc

Energy · doubler · MEDIUM confidence
45.8
Alpha Score
Price
$74.76
Win Prob
68%
Half-Kelly
10.0%
Shares
133

📊 Scoring Waterfall

Each factor's weighted contribution to the total alpha score. Formula: contribution = (raw / max) × weight × 100

Fundamentals
0 / 20 · weight 15% · 0.00 pts
Momentum
1.0 / 1.0 · weight 15% · 15.00 pts
Options
3 / 20 · weight 15% · 2.25 pts
Implied
0.68 / 1.0 · weight 10% · 6.80 pts
Volume
0 / 2 · weight 10% · 10.00 pts
Relative Strength
0 / 3 · weight 10% · 2.50 pts
Technical
12 / 15 · weight 10% · 8.00 pts
Pattern
20.0 / 20 · weight 5% · 5.00 pts
Mean Reversion
0 / 2 · weight 5% · 2.50 pts
Quality
3 / 5 · weight 5% · 3.00 pts
🚀 Doubler Bonus: +20.0 pts Stocks that have doubled in price get a 20-point bonus in the doubler-first strategy
Total Alpha Score 75.0

🎯 Factor Radar

📉 Entry Signal

Signal Type
PULLBACK
Entry Zone
$71.85 – $74.76
Signal Strength
4/5
ATR (14)
$2.33

🛡️ Trailing Stops

Initial Stop
$67.77
-9.3%
Trail at +50%
$84.11
Trail at +100%
$127.09
Stop Type
atr (9.3%)

📐 Kelly Criterion

Win Probability (p) 0.68
Avg Win (b) 0.70
Avg Loss 0.09
Win/Loss Ratio 7.527

Formula
f* = (p×b - q) / b
= f* = (0.68 × 7.53 - 0.32) / 7.53 = 63.7%

Full Kelly 63.7%
Half-Kelly ✅ 31.9%
📝 capped at 10% (MEDIUM confidence)

Suggested Shares 133
Position Size 9.9%

📊 Options Flow

IV Rank 36.8
IV Current 0.50
P/C OI Ratio 0.31
P/C Vol Ratio 0.43
IV Regime normal
Squeeze No
Analyst Target $67.86
Analyst Upside -9.2%
Rating Buy

📅 Earnings Risk

Earnings Date 2026-04-30
Days Away 4 days
Risk Flag ⚠️ Yes

🎯 Confidence Factors

outperforming sector
oversold bounce setup
earnings within 2 weeks